Diamond Analytics Forecast: When Will Lab-Grown Diamond Sales Be the Majority?

At some point, more lab-grown diamonds will be sold than naturals. This is a given and does not even require any diamond analytics, as natural diamonds are a finite resource, and over time, their supply will dwindle. Lab-grown diamonds are factory made, and the raw materials for producing them are nearly infinite. Lab-grown diamonds sales will eventually outpace naturals. The question is not if but when this will happen.

The Lab-Grown Diamond Contradiction

Lab-grown diamonds are a living contradiction. Demand is rising, but prices are falling. They are hot in the US, but not sweeping the rest of the world. Wholesalers accommodate price erosion. It’s a technological­ driven product catering to a young crowd and striving to follow in the footsteps of a centuries-old product, while enthusiastically adopting many of its ills.

Lab Grown: All Fears Materialized

In 2018, De Beers launched Lightbox Jewelry, a lab-grown-set jewelry collection with an unstated primary goal of disrupting the lab-grown market through devaluation and separation. Divide and conquer is an age-old battle strategy, but in this case, it didn’t work as well as hoped for. Surprisingly, not only is the natural diamond industry seeing its fears materialize. So also is the lab-grown industry. Following is the sum of all their fears.

The LGD Price Anomaly: Demand Rises, Prices Decline

Economy 707 maintains that prices rise with demand. The logic is that when the market wants more of something, competition pushes up the price. But sometimes, there is a price anomaly, and prices behave differently. Enter lab-grown, for instance.

When consumer demand for lab grown (LG) was relatively low, there was a frenzy to join the supply chain. Everyone from producers to retailers wanted in. So far, the result of this frenzy is the LGD Price Anomaly: rising consumer demand and declining wholesale prices.